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Friday, March 5, 2010

Indexes Rise, But Top Stocks Show Little Leadership

Stocks rose moderately Thursday in mixed volume, as most indexes closed in better form than in the previous couple of days.

The Nasdaq and Dow rose 0.5% each. The S&P 500 added 0.4%. The NYSE composite trailed with a 0.1% gain. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closed near session highs.

Volume fell on the Nasdaq but edged up on the NYSE. Market watchers attributed the unimpressive volume to traders awaiting Friday's unemployment numbers.

It was a relatively quiet session for all but a few top-rated stocks.

Since Monday's follow-through, the indexes have essentially moved sideways. While breakouts have occurred and few have failed outright, only a handful has made much headway.

Those that broke out and added to the initial gain include cloud computing firm F5 Networks (FFIV); Applebee's and IHOP operator and franchiser DineEquity (DIN), which is thinly traded; and Israeli medical-equipment developer Given Imaging (GIVN), also a thinly traded stock.

Breakouts Thursday included thinly traded pharmacy benefits manager SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) and discount apparel store chain Ross Stores (ROST).

SXC roared 15% in heavy trade after beating quarterly estimates on earnings and sales. It also raised 2010 guidance above analysts' expectations.

SXC cleared a base and is now 4% past its 56.30 buy point.

Ross Stores reported that February same-store sales rose almost twice as much as the Street expected. The stock jumped past a 50.60 buy point in volume 29% greater than usual.

Action in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) is more typical of recent breakouts. It cleared an 88.75 buy point intraday Tuesday but closed below it. It did the same Wednesday and closed basically flat Thursday.

Such action isn't a sell signal, but it's indecisive enough to raise doubts.

Other stocks are still in the base-building process.

Retailer Urban Outfitters (URBN) is building the right side of a base. It added 0.94 to 34.34 Thursday in 28% faster trade. The company is showing signs of a potential turnaround. Before Thursday's open, it reported quarterly results, topping expectations.

Earnings leapt 88%, the best gain in at least 19 quarters. Sales rose 16%, the best in five quarters. After-tax profit margin was 13%, the best in at least 19 quarters.

Mutual funds added shares in Urban Outfitters in Q4.

Economic news was mixed Thursday. Results were encouraging on initial jobless claims and on retail same-store sales.

Apparel, discount and other retail industry groups were among the day's best performers.

But factory orders and pending home sales in February were worse than expected.

After hours, computer security provider ArcSight (ARST) plunged 9% after it topped views on revenue but missed on earnings. It has broken out of a cup with handle, but that move is now in doubt.

5:15 p.m. Update: Stocks swung back and forth, finishing higher ahead of Friday's key jobs report.

The Nasdaq bounced back from a 0.3% deficit to end up 0.5%. The Dow also rose 0.5%, thanks to gains by Boeing (BA), Walt Disney (DIS) and American Express (AXP).

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the NYSE composite 0.1%.

Volume ticked up on the NYSE and dropped sharply on the Nasdaq.

The all-important February jobs report will be out before Friday's open. Economists are expecting a loss of 63,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is slated to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7% in January.

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