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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Indexes Stage Positive Reversal, Though Volume Dips

The bulls won a low-volume battle Thursday.

Stocks spent most of the session in the red, and then moved up quickly in the last hour of trade. While the positive reversal was welcomed, the slower trade suggested that institutional investors were taking a timeout.

The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow each finished 0.4% higher. The NYSE composite added 0.3%.

Volume was lower on both major exchanges.

Economic news had little impact Thursday. Jobless claims were a little worse than expected. February foreclosures showed the smallest jump in some time, but the rise was still 6%. A report of inflation jumping in China was bad news, but the market eventually shrugged it off.

Technical action during the session was good, with the early weakness coming in light trade, the rebound in better volume. The indexes closed near their session highs — another positive note.

Good technical action has been typical since the market uptrend was confirmed March 1. There hasn't been a day of distribution in a major index. Plus, the Nasdaq has made a new high several sessions in a row.

The breadth of the gains also has been positive. The NYSE advance/decline line is making new highs; the Nasdaq's advance/decline line is near a new high.

A technical test, however, looms for the S&P 500. On Thursday, it closed just under its previous high at 1150.45, set on Jan. 19. The Street will be watching to see if it can break through that level or if it will find resistance there.

Action was slow among leading stocks Thursday, with few going up or down significantly in strong volume.

With the confirmed uptrend nine sessions old, it might be useful to look at how recent breakouts are faring.

More than three dozen high-rated stocks have broken out. That's a healthy number, but not all are true leaders. Three have triggered the 8% sell rule — Harbin, thinly traded fiber-optics firm AboveNet (ABVT) and security software provider ArcSight (ARST).

Most breakouts are modestly up from the buy point. A few are modestly down.

So far this month, small caps have led the market's new uptrend. The small-cap S&P 600 is up 7.2% in March. The Nasdaq is up 5.8%, the best gain among the major indexes.

The Nasdaq's Accumulation/Distribution Rating also is ahead of the other major indexes'. After languishing a while, some of those ratings are improving.

Posted 05:08 PM ET

Stocks shrugged off Chinese inflation news and a smaller-than-expected drop in initial jobless claims Thursday. Indexes wavered for most of the session, but buying came in during the final hour of trading.

The Nasdaq rallied 0.4%, closing at its session high. That marked its sixth straight gain. The Dow and the S&P 500 also rose 0.4% each. The S&P closed near its January peak. The NYSE composite gained 0.3%.

Despite the late push, volume fell sharply across the board.

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